Climate change rainfall warning

Braintree and Witham Times: Short bursts of heavy rainfall triggered flooding in the north Cornwall town of Boscastle nearly a decade ago Short bursts of heavy rainfall triggered flooding in the north Cornwall town of Boscastle nearly a decade ago

Short, sharp downpours could become an increasingly unwanted characteristic of the British summer if the effects of global warming are to continue, experts have warned.

A landmark study by the Met Office and Newcastle University has identified how climate change could result in heavier summer rainfall, which in turn could increase the risk of flash flooding.

The study, published in the Nature and Climate Change journal, said: " Short duration rain events are predicted to intensify during the summer months in the southern United Kingdom.

"This predicted increase means more events would exceed the Met Office and Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre guidance threshold for serious flash flooding."

The report highlights how short bursts of heavy rainfall triggered flooding in the north Cornwall town of Boscastle nearly a decade ago, when the coastal community was brought to its knees as a result of an atrocious pocket of unseasonable summer weather.

Researchers say the study is significant because previous climate models have not been able to work out the effect on extreme hourly rainfall in the warmer months.

To improve the resolution of their model, researchers in this latest experiment used smaller grid spacings than normal, providing it with more detailed research.

The report adds that previous interpretations of future regional climate change scenarios should be revisited, as changes in these types of rain events could have been underestimated.

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1:52pm Wed 4 Jun 14

save energy says...

The Met Office 'super-computer' can’t predict 14 days with any accuracy, yet they now claim to predict 80yrs hence to within ½ a degree C…Am I missing something ??? Remember ‘Garbage in = Garbage out.

•••Note the extensive use of Could & If, Eg -
( “could result in heavier summer rainfall, which in turn could increase the risk of flash flooding” )

••• Well according to the Met Office we’ve had NO rise in temps for 15yrs, in fact a slight fall. -
See this global mean temperature change chart - http://tinyurl.com/p
538a54 - Met office data http://www.metoffice
.gov.uk/research/new
s/recent-pause-in-wa
rming

This chart @ - http://tinyurl.com/n
jwnor8 - shows central England temps from 1659-2013.
2013 was the same temperature as 1666 !!!....with a few fluctuations in-between;
& we are still 2°C colder than when the Romans were here !!
• For the met office data sets, see – http://tinyurl.com/8
727btc

See what happened in the past - http://www.newscient
ist.com/data/images/
archive/2839/2839230
1.jpg - & where we fit in.
The Met Office 'super-computer' can’t predict 14 days with any accuracy, yet they now claim to predict 80yrs hence to within ½ a degree C…Am I missing something ??? Remember ‘Garbage in = Garbage out. •••Note the extensive use of Could & If, Eg - ( “could result in heavier summer rainfall, which in turn could increase the risk of flash flooding” ) ••• Well according to the Met Office we’ve had NO rise in temps for 15yrs, in fact a slight fall. - See this global mean temperature change chart - http://tinyurl.com/p 538a54 - Met office data http://www.metoffice .gov.uk/research/new s/recent-pause-in-wa rming This chart @ - http://tinyurl.com/n jwnor8 - shows central England temps from 1659-2013. 2013 was the same temperature as 1666 !!!....with a few fluctuations in-between; & we are still 2°C colder than when the Romans were here !! • For the met office data sets, see – http://tinyurl.com/8 727btc See what happened in the past - http://www.newscient ist.com/data/images/ archive/2839/2839230 1.jpg - & where we fit in. save energy
  • Score: 1
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