BRAINTREE constituency was created in 1974.

Its inaugral member of Parliament was the Conservative Tony Newton.

He was MP until 1997 when Alan Hurst captured the seat for Labour with a 1,451 majority.

Mr Hurst clung on again in 2001 with a tiny majority of 358, just seeing off the challenge of Tory new boy Brooks Newmark.

However, Mr Newmark defeated Mr Hurst in 2005 to regain the seat for the Conservatives with a 3,893 majority.

Braintree might have remained a Tory marginal if not for the boundary change of 2010 which excised the area’s Labour stronghold- Witham- and returned Mr Newmark with a thumping majority of 16,121.

In the absence of detailed polling data, March’s Essex County Council by-election for the Bocking seat gives the closest indication of how it will go.

The Tories won with 34.3% of the vote, Labour finished second on 31.2% and Ukip third on 27.4%.

How much can be read into the results of an election in which just 22% of the electorate bothered to vote is up for debate.